Wisconsin Basics

Wisconsin (92 delegates) voting is under way and Hawaii (29 delegates) caucuses tonight, both likely to fall for Obama, but perhaps not quite as decisively as once was thought.

The Obama campaign’s internal projections (accidentally sent to reporters last week) had him winning Wisconsin by a 7-point margin, 53% to 46%, and Hawaii 52% to 47%.

But in Wisconsin, polling appears to have tightened up a bit over the weekend with Rasmussen Reports giving Obama a 4-point edge in Wisconsin (+/-4.0 margin of error) and nearly a quarter of those polled saying they might change their mind before voting.

Hawaii still favors Obama, partly because he grew up there and partly because caucus states have been good to him. But Clinton did put some resources into the state, not the least of which was Chelsea who spent a couple days stumping for her there -- leading to some last-minute momentum on the ground.

Wisconsin does hold some demographic favorables for Clinton: it's about 9/10 white, has a large working class, and is slightly older on average than the rest of the nation. However, the state also holds open primaries, meaning independents and Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary if they so choose. Wisconsin's nearly 30% registered independents are expected to be a boost for Obama.

If Clinton were to win Wisconsin, it would be a huge morale booster, though it might not result in a big delegate change since the margin would likely be small. The pundits are still leaning Obama, though most are saying that it may well be tighter than originally expected.

Comments

[tony mills]

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