Wisconsin (92 delegates) voting is under way and Hawaii (29 delegates) caucuses tonight, both likely to fall for Obama, but perhaps not quite as decisively as once was thought.
The Obama campaign’s internal projections (accidentally sent to reporters last week) had him winning Wisconsin by a 7-point margin, 53% to 46%, and Hawaii 52% to 47%.
But in Wisconsin, polling appears to have tightened up a bit over the weekend with Rasmussen Reports giving Obama a 4-point edge in Wisconsin (+/-4.0 margin of error) and nearly a quarter of those polled saying they might change their mind before voting.
Hawaii still favors Obama, partly because he grew up there and partly because caucus states have been good to him. But Clinton did put some resources into the state, not the least of which was Chelsea who spent a couple days stumping for her there -- leading to some last-minute momentum on the ground.
Wisconsin does hold some demographic favorables for Clinton: it's about 9/10 white, has a large working class, and is slightly older on average than the rest of the nation. However, the state also holds open primaries, meaning independents and Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary if they so choose. Wisconsin's nearly 30% registered independents are expected to be a boost for Obama.
If Clinton were to win Wisconsin, it would be a huge morale booster, though it might not result in a big delegate change since the margin would likely be small. The pundits are still leaning Obama, though most are saying that it may well be tighter than originally expected.
WARNING TO ALL PHOTOGRAPHERS WHO SUBMIT OR SELL PHOTOGRAPHS TO SPECIALITY PUBLICATIONS: FRESHMEN, MEN MAGAZINE, UNZIPPED AND [2] MAGAZINE.
If your considering submitting or selling your photo shoots to Speciality Publications, think again. I thought I just sold the publication rights for Freshmen to use my photos, and this was agreed before I send off my 6x7 slides: the film and model costs alone came to about $800. A few months later I called their office wondering why I had not received my slides, and was told that the magazine was now in the hands of new owners, and that they would not return my slides due to a change of policy. I did not sign a contract for a buy out of my photo shoot. Speciality Publications have been using my photo shoot over the years, and even breached my copyright. I have not received any fee for repeat usage, or even been offered any compensation for the slides that they have not been willing to return to me. The quality of the model and photo shoot was high, this means that the potential loss of internet subscriptions and magazine rights sales over a number of years could be in the region of $100,000. I have now been forced to take legal action to resolve this matter, due to the fact that their attorney has failed to enter into any negotiations to resolve this issue.
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PlanetOut, Inc. the owners of Speciality Publications, Gay.com, PlanetOut.com, Out.com, Advocate.com, OutTraveler.com, HIVPlusMag.com, PlanetOut, The Advocate, Out, The Out Traveller, HIVPlus, SpecPub, Inc., BuyGay.com and Alyson Publications; have now appointed the investment bank Allen & Company, LLC to explore the possibility of a sale of PlanetOut as a possible strategic option. A part of the magazine division has now been sold to Regent Entertainment.
Posted by: tony mills | May 03, 2008 at 03:32 PM