Hours Before Polls Open, Obama's Grandmother Dies

A mere day before the county votes on the next president of the United States, Barack Obama's grandmother Madelyn Dunham lost her battle with cancer. She was 86. John and Cindy McCain were quick to express their sorrows...

"We offer our deepest condolences to Barack Obama and his family as they grieve the loss of their beloved grandmother. Our thoughts and prayers go out to them as they remember and celebrate the life of someone who had such a profound impact in their lives." (Ross von Metzke)

Battle For LGBT Voters Rages On

Photo: Getty Images

Even as Barack Obama's campaign finalized an ad buy last week for four full-page ads in local gay weeklies in Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton was conducting a conference call on LGBT issues and answering the questions of local reporters from the Dallas Voice and two Ohio publications: Outlook Weekly and Gay People's Chronicle. Altogether, Clinton has done interviews with six LGBT outlets, including The Advocate, Logo, and The Washington Blade. Clinton also published a message to LGBT Americans on OurChart.com.

Obama has given one interview to an LGBT news outlet: last October to The Advocate. Today he published an open letter to the LGBT community on the blog Bilerico Project, the second such post he has made to that site.

Obama Ad Buys in Ohio & Texas

The Obama campaign is lavishing some of its cash advantage on the LGBT community with targeted ad buys in Ohio and Texas leading up to the critical March 4th primaries in both states (Rhode Island and Vermont also vote that day). According to Obama LGBT Steering Committee member Eric Stern, the campaign has just completed an ad buy with queer newspapers in the four largest LGBT markets of those two states -- Columbus, Cleveland, Dallas and Houston.

This is a generic version of the full-page ad that will appear starting this Friday (2/29) in Outlook Weekly of Columbus, the Gay People's Chronicle of Cleveland, the Dallas Voice, and OutSmart, which is Houston based. Buying a full-page, four-color ad that appears one time typically costs anywhere between $1,000 and $2,000 in weekly publications. In the Gay People's Chronicle, for instance, the ad cost about $850 according to the paper's advertising manager; the same ad went for about $1500 in the Dallas Voice. (Ad provided by Obama '08) 

The ads were the brainchild of Stampp Corbin, co-chair of Sen. Obama's National LGBT Leadership Council. Stern called the coordinated buy "the icing on the cake" in terms of the Obama camp's outreach to the gay community in Ohio and Texas. "It's a direct appeal to LGBT voters asking for their support," he said, adding that the ads will include market-specific information about how people can get involved with the campaign. The Obama campaign has actively been trying to cut into the longstanding ties between gays and lesbians and Hillary Clinton.

Wisconsin Basics

Wisconsin (92 delegates) voting is under way and Hawaii (29 delegates) caucuses tonight, both likely to fall for Obama, but perhaps not quite as decisively as once was thought.

The Obama campaign’s internal projections (accidentally sent to reporters last week) had him winning Wisconsin by a 7-point margin, 53% to 46%, and Hawaii 52% to 47%.

But in Wisconsin, polling appears to have tightened up a bit over the weekend with Rasmussen Reports giving Obama a 4-point edge in Wisconsin (+/-4.0 margin of error) and nearly a quarter of those polled saying they might change their mind before voting.

Hawaii still favors Obama, partly because he grew up there and partly because caucus states have been good to him. But Clinton did put some resources into the state, not the least of which was Chelsea who spent a couple days stumping for her there -- leading to some last-minute momentum on the ground.

Wisconsin does hold some demographic favorables for Clinton: it's about 9/10 white, has a large working class, and is slightly older on average than the rest of the nation. However, the state also holds open primaries, meaning independents and Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary if they so choose. Wisconsin's nearly 30% registered independents are expected to be a boost for Obama.

If Clinton were to win Wisconsin, it would be a huge morale booster, though it might not result in a big delegate change since the margin would likely be small. The pundits are still leaning Obama, though most are saying that it may well be tighter than originally expected.

Revisiting Idaho

Photo: Getty Images

Before Super Tuesday, I was in Seattle and crossed paths with Idaho's Democratic Party vice chair, Jeanne Buell, which yielded a number of interesting insights.

Perhaps most poignantly given Obama's growing momentum, our conversation really brought home his strategy of redrawing the political map by paying attention to smaller states and red states while Clinton was focused on the big enchiladas like New York (288 delegates) and California (441 delegates).

Buell was ecstatic because Obama was scheduling 3 hours of time to visit Idaho, a predominately red state with only 23 delegates, on the Saturday before Super Tues (he ended up drawing a crowd of about 14,000). Buell, who is a superdelegate in Idaho, had promised that she would pledge her vote to whichever Democratic candidate would actually visit Idaho before the caucus. "I never dreamed any of them would show up," she told me. When asked why Obama would spend several hours in a state that only offers 23 delegates, she said, "I'd like to believe it's because he cares about the people of Idaho." Pressed further, she added, "I think it's smart. Do you know how much press the man's going to get?"

Few people are questioning how smart it was now. Idaho Democrats chose him over Clinton by a margin of 80% to 17%. Clinton almost didn't make the 15% threshold she needed in order to be eligible for delegates. Obama's efforts in Idaho -- he also opened an HQ there last November, far in advance of any other candidate -- are an example of the type of ground game that has led most recently to his string of eight straight wins in February.

Hillary's campaign has taken note. On a press call today (2/13), Clinton's senior advisors promised that the campaign would have paid staffers in all remaining states that have yet to vote. "We are recommitting and redoubling our efforts to make sure that we have the most effective and largest grass roots operation in these states moving forward," said Guy Cecil, the campaign's political and field director. Whether those efforts are too little, too late remains to be seen.

On a separate note, Buell is part of Idaho's women's caucus and had attended the DNC's diversity summit in Las Vegas last summer, where over 100 LGBT activists also attended to represent the community. In the course of networking, Buell met some LGBT participants and spent time talking to one transgender activist. "I had never met a transgender person before," Buell said. "I had no idea what type of turmoil they go through." Buell came away from the summit with a better understanding of the queer community and now wants to start an LGBT caucus in Idaho.