It seemed only fitting that I would conclude my reporting from South Carolina with an entry about Ken Hubbard, an openly gay African-American resident of Charleston who is presently in nursing school.
Hubbard, a 45-year-old Arkansas native who moved to SC nine years ago, came out to his highly religious family when he was 32. Although they had attended church almost every day of the week when he was growing up, they weren’t living in a bubble. His mother and two sisters apparently already knew and were simply waiting for Hubbard to get with the program. “I told one of my sisters and she said, ‘And?’ I told the other one and she said, 'So?'” Hubbard recalls.
He encountered a bit more tension with his two brothers, both of whom are Pentecostal preachers. “It’s been a little rough -- they both had to balance it with their faith,” says Hubbard, adding that one of them still struggles a bit. Even so, when Hubbard was home for Christmas, the brother that’s still adjusting took Hubbard to meet his church elder. “He may not be fully comfortable, but if he takes me to meet the Bishop, then he’s okay,” he says with a smile.
Hubbard just finished serving a year on the board of the NAACP’s Charleston Chapter and is taking a break right now while he concentrates on his studies. But long before working with the NAACP, he was involved with both of the state’s gay organizations, the South Carolina Equality Coalition and the Alliance For Full Acceptance. He says he felt more compelled to get political about his sexuality because it might otherwise be missed by others. “People will always see me as a black man, but not all of them will see me as a gay black man,” he says.
He joined the NAACP Board when AFFA members were working to build alliances and Dot Scott, the rather fearless president of Charleston's NAACP Chapter, told him that if gays and lesbians wanted her help, then Hubbard should join her board. “It works both ways” is how he remembers her saying it. (Hubbard gives her a lot of credit for having the chutzpah to invite a gay man to sit on her board.)
Hubbard can count the number of out, established black peers he knows in Charleston on less than two hands, and he knows another 15 or so who are gay but not open about it. “The students and young adults are getting much better,” he adds.
But for the older generations, it’s just easier not to discuss it even if people know someone is gay. “It’s okay for people to know as long we don’t have to talk about it,” Hubbard says, describing people’s attitudes toward gays and lesbians. “But if it comes out in the open, then I have to deal with my prejudices.”
Hubbard, whose unique openness makes him a widely sought after commodity for all kinds of speaking engagements, said one seminar in particular showed him the power of speaking out. At a diversity seminar on a fundamentalist college campus in Spartanburg, SC, he was invited to speak about his experiences as a gay black man. When he arrived to the auditorium of 100-plus students, “it was already a hornet’s nest,” he says. A dispute had broken out among the students once they realized what the topic of discussion would be.
When the crowd began asking questions, “It’s fair to say, they were disrespectful,” says Hubbard, who has a background in divinity and served as a lay pastor at one point. He talked to them about questioning how they could serve God in this situation, since no matter what they said, “You’re not going to change my view about who I am.”
Things eventually reached a relative calm and then one African-American boy stood up and said, “This is the first time that I’ve ever told anyone that I’m gay, and I might not be able to do this all the time, but I can take this first step.”
Says Hubbard, “That’s when I knew this is what I was meant to do – open my big mouth. I can show people how to stand up with dignity.”
Hubbard’s faith beamed through him during our discussion, but he admitted that religion had initially made it harder for him to embrace his sexuality. “We all knew who was gay, but we just didn’t talk about it,” he says of his church growing up. “That was etched in my mind.”
And lest we forget the presidential -- Hubbard is torn between Clinton and Obama, but is leaning Obama at the moment. And for the record, the Donnie McClurkin deal really didn’t bother him that much. “It was a little disappointing, but (Obama) is a man, he’s going to make mistakes. If I’m ever going to ask for forgiveness, I have to forgive others.” Hubbard believes that removing McClurkin from the tour would have been “cowering down” in a way. “I wish Obama would have come out against Donnie and said, ‘Please don’t do this on my stage. You need to take that message elsewhere,’” says Hubbard. “But Donnie doesn’t define who God is to me,” he adds. “It’s my job to get on stage and talk back.”
(A little programming note: Technically, this completes my reporting from SC, as I flew back to New York today. If possible, I will write one more entry about an interview I did with Rev. Joseph Darby of Charleston. Anyone who wants to read the SC blogging in its entirety, click here. Thanks for tuning in. --Kerry)
One of the brighter spots of the political work being done here has
been the community's evolving relationship with the state Democratic
Party.
Susie Prueter, the former president of AFFA (SC's LGBT rights
org) from 2004 to 2007, said she and other gay activists decided around
2005 that they simply had to get involved in other causes besides their
own -- from the NAACP to Planned Parenthood to the Democratic Party.
"There's a great Woody Allen quote that 90% of life is simply showing
up," says Prueter. "We just started showing up."
But before making real gains, the community suffered one major setback.
During their 2006 marriage amendment fight, they managed to get a
resolution included on the state party platform stating that the
Democratic Party opposed the marriage amendment (passing this res.
would have helped to ensure that Democratic members of the legislature
would have to vote against the amendment). But just before passing the
entire platform, the party leadership added a last-minute caveat that
Democratic legislators didn't necessarily have to support the platform
(meaning they could vote in favor of the marriage amendment even though the party platform opposed it).
"It happened in the blink of an eye," says Prueter, adding that no
debate on the caveat was allowed. Even after that blow, the community kept showing up. "We just tried to stay
positive. We wanted to make sure that the GLBT community was active in
the political process, to show that we want to grow the Democratic
Party, that we aren't just a single-issue constituency, and that we are
a valuable part of the party," says Prueter.
The biggest breakthrough came when gay folks volunteered in droves to
help organize and register people for the CNN/YouTube debate held last
July at the Citadel in Charleston. "I bet 75% of the people who were
manning (the registration) process were members of the community," says
Warren Redman-Gress, the current executive director of AFFA and a founding board member.
That effort prompted Carol Fowler, the state Democratic Party chair, to
publicly thank the LGBT community for their help during the preamble to
the televised debate. In fact, according to Redman-Gress, her opening
remarks included, "We are here tonight -- young and old, black and
white, rich and poor, gay and straight..." That may sound pretty tame
to urbanites, but this debate was being held at the Citadel, a public
military college that was forced by the courts to start accepting women
in 1995 (the lawsuit inspired "Save the Males" bumper stickers to
spring up all over city). The significance of Fowler's comments wasn't lost on Redman-Gress.
"It blew me away," he says.
"Just a couple years ago, no one even wanted to talk about gay people
being citizens of South Carolina," adds Prueter, who approached Fowler
after the debate to thank her for including the community in her
"remarks."
Prueter recalls that Fowler responded, "Susie, I'm including you in my party."
The proof is in the puddin' and, this year, the party voted to send 3 LGBT delegates out of 54 total to represent South Carolina at the
national convention. That's 3 more openly gay representatives than have ever gone before.
(P.S. Not to beat a dead horse here, but Both Redman-Gress and Prueter
are Clinton suppoters. Prueter says she might be with Obama today if it
weren't for McClurkin.)
If anybody is watching the debate on CNN right now, the gloves have clearly come off. Clinton and Obama spent almost the first 20 minutes trading blows about Obama's pro-Reagan quotes, Bill Clinton's "fairytale" comment, slum lords, corporate lawyers, etc. This is the most contentious debate I have seen yet.
My guess is that the details of those arguments matter little. A lot of that back and forth only served to rehash the fact that the Clintons (yes, both) appear to have gone after Barack in the past couple weeks, and a lot of African Americans feel those attacks have been unfair. Assuming that the main audience for this debate is African American, that's a net loss for Clinton no matter which way you slice it in my opinion. And Edwards may have gained the most from their scuffle, though I don't think it will help him enough to make a huge difference at the polls.
We shall see which of the candidates (if any) is able to rise above in the second part of the debate.
Partners Crystal Hargett and Julia Carroll traveled from Charlotte for the rally today (I spotted them holding hands as they left).
They're a Hillary household now, but at one point, Carroll was leaning toward Obama. Did McClurkin change her mind? No. In fact, they weren't aware of the McClurkin episode at all, probably because they live in NC rather than SC -- suggesting that imbroglio was somewhat contained to the borders of South Carolina. (Most of the Iowa LGBT folks I met also didn't know about the episode and, consequently, Obama enjoyed widespread support among the gay folks I met there).
Carroll said her decision was based on Clinton's years of service, her experience, and the fact that "she dedicated her life" to working on behalf of women and children.
Obama, Edwards, and Clinton all spoke at the rally today, but Clinton and Obama commanded the crowd. The speeches were all relatively short (10-15 mins), but the crowd was simply more electric for Obama and Clinton, and maybe appropriately so for an MLK day rally. As Hillary put it: "That we stand here is a measure of Dr. King's life work and his legacy..."
Obama spoke about a "deficit" -- not in terms of budget or trade. "I'm talking about a moral deficit in America, I'm talking about the empathy deficit, I'm talking about the inability to recognize ourselves in each other." That's just a little taste, he was quite brief to be honest, but well received.
One other thing I noticed about Clinton's speech, she repeated the exact phrase, "Stand up, speak out, act and vote" at least 3 times. And while I think all the Democratic candidates want people motivated, this seemed like more than just a selfless public service announcement on Clinton's part. It made me wonder if high turn out might favor her slightly in some way -- is she urging blue collar voters to get to the polls? I honestly don't know, but it struck me.
Okay, faithful readers, sorry for the long absence today -- I ran into the double whammy of logistical and technical trouble!
Here's a pic of what I spoke of in my earlier post -- where the Confederate flag, now removed from atop the State House, flies beside a monument honoring Confederate soldiers. This is where the rally took place today.
These signs, still in the hallway of a gay activist's house, were left over from the SC LGBT community's ill-fated fight against a 2006 amendment to ban same-sex marriage in the state constitution. South Carolina's voters passed it by a whopping 78% (only to be outdone by Tennessee, which approved a marriage ban with 81% of the vote). Among a handful of precincts that voted against the measure were some in Charleston, James Island and Folly Beach (which are sort of part of the greater Charleston area), and Columbia. Anyway, just a little reality check about the real bias against the gay community that still persists among all races in this state.
And while some black progressives I've spoken with here are extending a hand to gays and lesbians, a straight African-American gentleman told me he witnessed a church service today where a black minister literally railed against homosexuality. (Back to the labels again, I know... just trying give readers context for the sources and scenes.)
I personally experienced none of that preaching at the two predominately black services I attended, one of which was the highly popular MLK celebration at Morris Street Baptist Church (not to be confused with Morris Brown AME from an earlier post). But apparently, last year, one of the guest speakers at Morris Street Baptist's ceremony went on a full-fledged rant about homosexuality even as a number of out gays and lesbians watched from the pews. Following that service, gay activist Susie Prueter sent a letter to the minister there registering her disappointment at being singled out, especially at a service honoring Dr. King and his contributions. Though she never received a response, she's heard murmurs that the letter stirred conversation among leaders of the church community.
Heading into Monday's Dr. King day rally in SC's capital Columbia, let's review a little history and revisit the poll that Dr. Scott Huffmon of Winthrop University conducted among African Americans last September.
History first: the Confederate flag was placed atop the state capitol in 1962 by the vote of a reportedly all-white legislature in order to commemorate the Civil War (aka "The War of Northern Aggression" as some people still call it here... and ol' genteel white Charlestonians might refer to it as "Our Late Unpleasantness"). Needless to say, many African Americans wanted the flag taken down, seeing it as a symbol of hate. The NAACP organized a national boycott of the Palmetto State's tourism industry in 1999, and in 2000, legislators voted to remove it from the State House dome and instead make it into a monument right in front of the building, where it is yet more visible than before.
Flag removal was sort of a litmus test for GOP candidates in 2000 and, at the time, John McCain essentially said it was up to state voters to decide. He has since named his failure to take a more forceful position against the flag as one of his biggest political regrets.
One of the main points of the rally tomorrow is to get the flag entirely removed from the State House grounds. Obama, Clinton and Edwards are all on the record saying it should be moved elsewhere.
When Winthrop conducted its poll last fall, they asked a question about the flag and got some surprising results. African Americans in South Carolina were asked whether they saw the Stars and Bars primarily as "a symbol of pride in our history or heritage" or as "a symbol of racism or hate."
For all black respondents, 49.7% said racism or hate. "Or another way of looking at it is -- only half?" Dr. Huffmon marveled during the interview. "I was shocked, I just could not believe it -- my God, this is the thing that was carried by the Klan," he added.
The rest of the breakdown went: 19.5 % saying it symbolized both hate/heritage; 13.5% said pride and heritage alone; and 11.3% said neither. Huffmon said that the more people identified as Southern or South Carolinian, the more likely they were to be tolerant of the flag.
And the gay question: Is sex between two adults of the same sex acceptable or unacceptable? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
Hard to see, I know, but that's the Rev. Joseph Darby, who was a bit out of the reach of my point-and-shoot today at Morris Brown AME (African Methodist Episcopal) Church in Charleston. Rev. Darby is personally supporting Sen. Obama (I know this from an earlier conversation). But he made sure to publicly declare during this morning's sermon -- which was appropriately called "Let's Do A New Thing" -- that the church was making no official endorsement.
Recalling the times of Dr. King, it went something like this: "I remember a time when they said, that boy is too young to lead people. I remember when they said, he needs to get a little more experience -- you remember that? -- he needs to go slower. It's not time yet, it's not his turn. He needs to get a little older." The Rev. concluded, "The church cannot make endorsements, but I can tell you what I think about Dr. King. Let the church say, Amen." Amen.
Darby's sermon culminated with the passionate refrain: "We're tired of the same old heartache -- Do a new thing! We're tired of the same old disappointment -- Do a new thing! We're tired of the same old hate -- Do a new thing!"
Do the words "Obama" or "change" spring to anybody's mind? I wonder how many other African-American ministers gave similar sermons today.
BTW, Obama had a rep there who gave a 5-minute spiel. Others were invited to do so, but no Clinton or Edwards counterparts were on hand.
Dot Scott is president of Charleston’s NAACP chapter, the oldest and one of the biggest in the state. In the course of our 1.5-hour conversation, she took one call from the Clinton campaign and another from the Obama campaign. Edwards? “They haven’t contacted me once,” said Scott, somewhat quizzically.
Hillary Clinton was the keynote at the NAACP’s annual Freedom Fund Banquet here last September and addressed a packed house of over 1,000 people. “We usually get 600 to 700 people – when you get 1,000, they’re coming for who’s speaking,” said Scott, adding that Clinton gave a “very impressive” speech. (Others who were there have also given glowing reviews.)
Nonetheless, Scott, the African American female voter so coveted by both campaigns, is personally supporting Sen. Obama (the NAACP remains neutral). She says Iowa gave her “the power to believe – that was all I needed.”
“Here we’ve got a candidate that could very well be the people’s candidate, not only African Americans,” says Scott. “We’ve had candidates in the past that were African American, and I think from the outcomes of those candidacies, we are discerning enough to elect a president not just because he’s black but in spite of the fact that he’s black.”
Scott was never torn between her two identities as a woman and an African American, referencing a sort of hierarchy in America of white men, white women, black men, black women. I play devil’s advocate and note that black men got the right to vote (at least on paper) half a century before any women.
“That’s a good argument,” responds Scott. “But just remember, if you were a white woman back then -- when you couldn’t vote, your husband could vote. If we couldn’t vote,” she says, putting her hand to her chest, “we had no voice.” True enough.
Scott has also actively reached out to the LGBT community here in Charleston, trying to raise visibility of gay issues and combat the homophobia that does seem to persist disproportionately in the black community here.
“It’s unfortunate, but the acceptance in the black community – ya know, that’s a pariah,” she says of being gay. “For those of us who are African American, we have to deal with all the other prejudices. I can understand why those who are also gay or lesbian, say, no, I’m not going to admit to that. That’s just an additional burden.” Scott says the NAACP still receives late night/early morning voice mails from people telling them to “go back to Africa” or comparing black folks to animals, among other hateful comments.
In terms of knowing peers who are gay, “Even those I suspect, the conversation just never comes up. So it’s difficult because I’m not able to be the bridge.”
What she has been able to do is work with LGBT leaders to host conversations and round tables and promote a dialogue around the shared goal of equality for all -- a number of people in Charleston's gay community have also become active members of the NAACP (almost all of them are white). In fact, at last year’s banquet where Clinton spoke, one of the main awards was given to an out white lesbian, Janet Segal. (Sorry for the blunt racial distinctions here, but there’s no PC way to explore this cross section of race and sexuality without simply telling readers who’s white, black, etc.)
“(Segal) was in the book, she talks about her partner in the book -- that’s putting the information out there,” Scott says of Segal’s inclusion. “That’s the kind of stuff I can do.”
Dwayne Green is now running for a state senate seat that isn’t just any seat, it’s Robert Ford’s seat, a Democrat who has represented Charleston County since 1993 and is one of the most prominent black leaders in the state.
Why mount a primary run against a popular sitting senator? Green, who is a lawyer, objected to the comments Ford made a year ago that Obama’s nomination would “doom” every other Democratic candidate on the ticket. “We'd lose the House, the Senate and the governors and everything. I'm a gambling man. I love Obama. But I'm not going to kill myself,” said Ford.
So Green threw his hat in the ring. “I thought it was terrible that a black elected official would attack the most viable presidential candidate we’ve ever had.”
So while Ford was professing to look out for the seats of fellow Democrats, he managed to put his own in jeopardy. The primary is June 10 and Green hopes to raise $100K for the run; he just passed the $50K mark according to his own calculations. Anecdotally, folks around here tend to think Green has a fighting chance. Obama's candidacy seems to be pushing change one way or the other.
Incidentally, gays and lesbians here say Robert Ford has really stuck his neck out for the LGBT community – introducing a series of pro-gay bills after SC voters overwhelmingly passed a state constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in 2006. “Ford, to his credit, has been very supportive of gays and lesbians,” says Green, adding, “In me, the community would not be losing anything.”
Here's the poster that graced the door to an Obama event at the YMCA today. Clinton may have taken Nevada tonight, but the momentum I'm feeling on the ground in Charleston right now is Obama's -- I'm seeing more functions, more canvassers, etc. (Most polls in the last couple weeks also have him up by anywhere from 6 to 13 points... to be taken with a grain of salt, of course.) That said, Charleston is also a natural fit for Obama. While surely old South, it also homes a lot of transplants and is the most progressive part of the state by most counts, which is part of the reason that one of the state's most active LGBT rights orgs, the Alliance For Full Acceptance (AFFA), is based in Charleston rather than SC's capital, Columbia.
As WNYC commentators say, the following statements are "thoroughly unscientific," but here is what I have found in the field. All of the African American folks I have spoken with thus far either support or lean Obama, without exception. Almost all of the white gay folks I have interviewed support Clinton -- and clearly McClurkin helped to seal the deal on that. I know a couple Edwards supporters, but even they admit that they are in the minority in terms of the LGBT community, most of whom have gone with either Obama or Clinton.
The last line of an Obama radio ad today offered, "It's your world on Saturday the 26th, let's change it." Many in the black community have clearly begun to believe that change is within reach -- along with the white folks and others who made up about 70% of his event at the YMCA today.
Keith Riddle is the president of the newly formed Stonewall Democrats chapter here in Charleston, the only in the state. Folks here had been working to get the chapter up for about 2 years, according to Riddle. That is, until Donnie McClurkin, an anti-gay ex-gay, took center stage on Sen. Obama's gospel tour aimed at wooing African-American religious folks. Once McClurkin's views on gays and lesbians came to light, the Obama campaign chose to keep him on the tour rather than removing him. (Obama maintained in an interview with The Advocate, that McClurkin wasn't thoroughly vetted.)
The McClurkin incident blew up in October 2007, incensing the LGBT community across the state. On Dec. 13, Stonewall had their first official meeting here in SC. "McClurkin really got things going," says Riddle. "For both gay Republicans and Democrats. I have encountered members of the gay community who were never really interested in politics that are just passionate about it this time." (Just FYI, the deep South has a history of sweeping 'unpleasantries' under the rug. A common M.O. here in SC regarding being gay is what people refer to as "don't ask, don't tell." To some extent, that appears to be changing. And full disclosure, I lived in SC for 6 years, so I am working with some perspective.)
At the Stonewall meeting, representatives from Obama's campaign said they knew they had made a mistake (reps from Hillary's campaign were present too). Still, Riddle says McClurkin comes up in "every conversation" he has with other gay folks about politics. "Obama never really apologized for that. I do believe that sometimes, it's time to move on," says Riddle. "But people just don't move on that quickly."
In Monday's debate, Riddle, who is a Hillary supporter but also likes Obama, says he hopes to see Obama address "how he's going to encourage the African American church and communities to embrace the gay and lesbian community." Riddle is still trying to get a ticket to the debate in Myrtle Beach. "I was expecting that one of the campaigns would reach out to GLBT
leaders to make sure they would be at the debates," he says. "But that
hasn't happened."
Stonewall is holding a debate primary viewing party on Jan. 26th at a local joint here in Charleston (Vickery's) where Riddle expects about 100 to 150 people.
Admittedly, my main focus here isn't on the GOP, but the Republican primary is today. Conventional wisdom says that rain is good for Huckabee, bad for McCain. The evangelicals make it out to vote rain or shine. Could rain really matter? I mean snow I understand, but really... a little rain?
Yes, really. Case in point, the gentleman I just met with, Keith Riddle, his mother lives in Myrtle Beach, is a a die-hard Republican voter and recently settled on McCain as her choice. She told him last night, if it was raining today, she wasn't going to the polls.
"'I called her this morning and said, 'You up? Okay, get in the car and go vote,'" says Riddle.
If you're interested in learning more about Huckabee, here's some stuff we dug up. He's been tacking even more conservative here in SC, calling for constitutional amendments not just to ban gay marriage but also abortion.
The National Black Justice Coalition, a civil rights organization dedicated to supporting LGBT people of color, is co-sponsoring Monday’s debate along with CNN and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute.
NBJC executive director and CEO, Alexander Robinson, said that while issues that impact African Americans will be the main focus of the debate, his organization has suggested some gay-specific questions to CBCI.
“Ultimately, the questions asked will be determined by CNN producers and Wolf Blitzer,” Robinson said, noting that Edwards, Obama and Clinton have all addressed questions in previous debates about same-sex marriage/civil unions, ending "don't ask, don't tell," and HIV/AIDS funding.
“What we haven't heard is just how they might differ in their approaches to achieving equality and justice for LGBT people or what, if anything, they believe and understand about the special challenges faced by black LGBT people -- in particular, recent news reports that young black gay men are experiencing significant increases in new cases of HIV, and the epidemic of homelessness in our communities.”
Certainly, it will be interesting to see if a question about LGBT issues makes it into the mix on Monday.
Just to give you a taste of being on the ground here in Charleston, SC, I started my day to the sound of Maya Angelou reaching out to me from a radio station that seemed geared toward African-American listeners.
"Let me tell you about my girl, Hillary Clinton," Angelou said in an ad. "As a child, Hillary Clinton was taught that all God's children are equal. So as a mother, she understood that her child wasn't safe, unless all children were safe." Angelou concluded with, "I am inspired by Hillary Clinton – a daughter, a wife, a mother, my girl."
Emphasis on the word "inspired" here, from a woman who tends to sound as though every word she utters has come direct from a higher power. This radio spot had far more religious overtones than any Democratic ads I heard or saw in Iowa. Remember, we're in the buckle of the Bible belt now, and religion plays to both sides, Democrats and Republicans. Photo: Getty Images
In order to get our bearings in South Carolina, Dr. Scott Huffmon, a professor who specializes in southern politics at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, gives us a quick look at the demographics of South Carolina.
African Americans make up about 30% of the entire population of South Carolina but, as has been widely reported, they will account for about 50% of the Democratic primary voters. Huffmon sees these numbers alone as reason enough to keep the Palmetto State at the front of the pack in terms of primaries.
“One of the reasons why South Carolina is important for Democrats as an early primary state is, it’s the first real test of a sizable African-American population,” he notes. “And we’re important for the Republicans because it’s the first real test of traditional conservative Republicans and Christian evangelicals.”
Perhaps more interestingly in terms of demographics, black women reign supreme here. Huffmon says they make up anywhere from 30 to 33% of voters in the Democratic primary, whereas black men account for between 17 and 20%.
Winthrop conducted one of the largest polls of African Americans in South Carolina in August and September of last year.
“A few months ago, the largest block of still undecided voters were African-American females, and they became the real battleground,” Huffmon says.
That’s around the time that Sen. Obama started his beauty shop campaign, visiting popular grooming spots around the state. Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign deployed Bill. “When we asked people, ‘Why do you support Hillary Clinton?’ The number one answer for many women among African Americans was Bill Clinton,” says Huffmon.
As for white Democrats last fall, he adds, “Hillary was number one by a long stretch. Edwards was number two back then, and Obama was number three.”
Today, Huffmon thinks the number of black ‘undecideds’ has decidedly shrunk, likely in Sen. Obama’s favor. “By last September, he had taken the lead among African Americans,” he says, adding that Clinton was second, and Edwards had only about 3% support among black voters. “There’s a good bet that the vast majority of folks here in South Carolina have made up their minds and tend to be less like New Hampshire voters where 3 days out, they’re still undecided – we’re not New Hampshire,” he says.
If you’re wondering why we’re harkening back to a poll from last fall, Huffmon says it was one of the only polls, if not the only poll, to use a statistical sample large enough of both blacks and whites to be broken down by race.
The polls that are coming out now may yield a percentage of voters who are still in a state of quandary, but they are not reliable predictors of who exactly those voters are. “So you can look at the ‘undecideds,’ but you would not be able to tell undecideds by race because there would not be enough of a sample size to do that,” says Huffmon.
When it comes to indicators for how African Americans are leaning, Huffmon is looking toward the MLK day rallies this coming Sunday and Monday. A big rally to honor Dr. Martin Luther King will be held at the state’s capitol dome in Columbia on Monday afternoon. Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all scheduled to appear there before marching to Myrtle Beach, SC, where they will participate in the CNN/Congressional Black Caucus debate – also being co-sponsored by the gay rights organization the National Black Justice Coalition.
But Dr. Huffmon isn’t looking to the highly publicized “Rally at the Dome” for intel on black voters. “Its’ not the rally that we need to pay attention to, it’s the tiny little gatherings among smaller groups of less than 100 or so of African Americans around the state,” he says. It’s at those gatherings where African Americans might rehash Sen. Clinton’s recent comments about it taking President Lyndon Johnson to pass legislation in order to make Dr. King’s dream a reality – which some blacks saw as diminishing the role that Dr. King played in the civil rights movement.
“They’re going to talk about that – it’s going to kind of go underground. It’s maybe not going to be talked about on Meet The Press, but it’s going to be talked about at prayer breakfasts honoring Dr. King around the state of South Carolina and that can only be bad for Hillary Clinton,” says Huffmon. “If that happens, that’s what I’m going to be looking for.”
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