Before Super Tuesday, I was in Seattle and crossed paths with Idaho's Democratic Party vice chair, Jeanne Buell, which yielded a number of interesting insights.
Perhaps most poignantly given Obama's growing momentum, our conversation really brought home his strategy of redrawing the political map by paying attention to smaller states and red states while Clinton was focused on the big enchiladas like New York (288 delegates) and California (441 delegates).
Buell was ecstatic because Obama was scheduling 3 hours of time to visit Idaho, a predominately red state with only 23 delegates, on the Saturday before Super Tues (he ended up drawing a crowd of about 14,000). Buell, who is a superdelegate in Idaho, had promised that she would pledge her vote to whichever Democratic candidate would actually visit Idaho before the caucus. "I never dreamed any of them would show up," she told me. When asked why Obama would spend several hours in a state that only offers 23 delegates, she said, "I'd like to believe it's because he cares about the people of Idaho." Pressed further, she added, "I think it's smart. Do you know how much press the man's going to get?"
Few people are questioning how smart it was now. Idaho Democrats chose him over Clinton by a margin of 80% to 17%. Clinton almost didn't make the 15% threshold she needed in order to be eligible for delegates. Obama's efforts in Idaho -- he also opened an HQ there last November, far in advance of any other candidate -- are an example of the type of ground game that has led most recently to his string of eight straight wins in February.
Hillary's campaign has taken note. On a press call today (2/13), Clinton's senior advisors promised that the campaign would have paid staffers in all remaining states that have yet to vote. "We are recommitting and redoubling our efforts to make sure that we have the most effective and largest grass roots operation in these states moving forward," said Guy Cecil, the campaign's political and field director. Whether those efforts are too little, too late remains to be seen.
On a separate note, Buell is part of Idaho's women's caucus and had attended the DNC's diversity summit in Las Vegas last summer, where over 100 LGBT activists also attended to represent the community. In the course of networking, Buell met some LGBT participants and spent time talking to one transgender activist. "I had never met a transgender person before," Buell said. "I had no idea what type of turmoil they go through." Buell came away from the summit with a better understanding of the queer community and now wants to start an LGBT caucus in Idaho.
Among many interesting developments last night, mainstream news organizations acknowledged that gay, lesbian, and bisexual voters exist and asked them to identify as such in the exits polls. A solid majority of those polled in California and New York preferred that Sen. Hillary Clinton be their next president.
NBC exit polling found that among the 4% of California voters who identified as GLB, 63% voted for Clinton, 29% for Obama, and 1% for Edwards. In New York, 7% of voters self-identified as GLB and 59% voted for Clinton, 36% for Obama, and 3% for Edwards.
New York and California were the only states in which this question was asked. The results show that the GLB electorate didn’t move much from where they were last fall in Hunter College’s national polling of the community, when likely GLB voters preferred Clinton by 63%, Obama’s by 22% and Edwards at 7%.
So as Neal told you earlier, the Obama party started off mellow with the slow jams, but once the doors opened. They let supporters in right in time for Obama's speech in Chicago. Somehow, a gaggle of three older ladies got into the press box; they were interesting to listen to. They could barely see the jumbotrons displaying the returns via CNN and MSNBC, but they cheered just as loud as everyone else whenever they projected a winner. When I told them which states he won, including North Dakota, Idaho (where there's a significant amount of KKK members), and a few others, one woman said, "They must really want change."
The scene at the Avalon was as diverse as anything: young, old, black, white, Latino, Asian, male, female... just seriously everything.
According to Mitchell Schwartz, a California director for Obama said that Alameda county had to keep the polls open an extra hour to get the votes in. It's a long voter count here in California -- we use paper ballots for our 22 million are eligible voters.
After that, they got the jams pumping with this cute DJ trio. Playing some good music (Boz Scaggs, Earth Wind & Fire, "Everyday People," "Love Bazaar," "He's the Greatest Dancer.")
The people at this place were dressed like this is a party for like, Skyy Vodka. Despite Clinton's big win in California (53-37), the party goes on...
Ethan Geto, center, with NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer (left) and Lt. Gov. David Paterson
Ethan Geto, a gay NY power broker and LGBT advisor to the Clinton campaign, made an interesting case for why a Hillary presidency would be a bigger step forward for the queer community than an Obama presidency.
"I think that the major reason gay men are looked down upon in American society is because people perceive their gayness to mean they have given up their male privilege — they are now like women. It’s considered a tremendous relinquishing of power, of status," said Geto. "I’ve always felt that the gay movement never would have really gotten off the ground without the feminist movement. The black civil rights movement was a great model and symbol in many ways, but I’ve always felt, the more research I’ve done over the years, that feminism is really the platform for gay liberation, gay rights, and so forth. I think that when and if a woman is elected president, it would be an enormous blow to sexism in general. It would have an enormous ripple effect psychologically and culturally in terms of the status of gay people...
"As far as lesbians go, a butch lesbian is seen like a man. Amongst other things — psychological and cultural factors — men don’t like to see strong women. They’re afraid of strong women. I think if you had a successful, strong woman, it just has to begin to change things. It may be a little more subtle, it may be a little more psychological and not totally a conscious thing. But in terms of cultural symbolism and changing cultural values, electing a woman would not only be a great lift for feminist goals, but very much gay rights and gay liberation."
(Programming Note: That's the last word from the East Coast. Signing off in NY.)
Most Hillary fans have made their way to the exit, but her press machine is still hard at work. They are putting both Missouri and Arizona in the "W" column for her. (Note: I don't think any news outlets have called Missouri for Hillary yet.) (UPDATE: Obama, in fact, won Missouri. Not Clinton.)
Here's what Team Hillary is saying: Southwest to Midwest, Clinton Picks Up Two More Toss Up States
MISSOURI Barack Obama outspent Hillary by $300,000 in TV ads in Missouri. He also benefited from the endorsements of high-profile surrogates across the state such as Representatives Carnahan and Clay, and Senator McCaskill, all of whom actively campaigned for him and appeared in ads on his behalf.
Despite these challenges, Hillary Clinton won this important toss-up state.
ARIZONA In addition to the endorsement of Governor Janet Napolitano, Barack Obama visited Arizona twice, spent $1.3 million in television advertisements, put an estimated 15 staff on the ground and opened two offices.
I ran into Ann Lewis, a campaign advisor to Hillary and the sister of Rep. Barney Frank. She reminded me that Frank did radio ads for Clinton in the very same state where Kerry and Kennedy were touting Obama. "Barney did well for us in Massachusetts," Lewis told me. "He contributed to what may have been one of the more surprising victories of the night."
Hillary just finished speaking... no doubt feeling pretty good and sounding suspiciously like a victory speech (note: two very big prizes, California and Missouri, are still up in the air.)
Her words were mostly targeted at the Republicans and McCain with some veiled references to Obama. "We know what we need is someone who is ready on day one," said Clinton. Later, she added, "I see an America where we don't just provide health care for some of the people or most of the people, but for every single man, woman, and child in America."
Then Clinton turned to Republicans, underscoring the idea that she was ready to take them on. "I won't let anyone swiftboat this country's future," she said to hollars from the crowd. Clinton referenced Bush and said of the GOP, "They want 8 more years of the same... They see 5 years in Iraq and say, Why not 100 more?" (McCain's '100 years' statement is gonna be tough for him to live down in the general.)
In terms of staging, Hillary thanked both Chelsea and Bill, who were present but notably not even on the stage with her -- looks like the campaign got the message post-South Carolina that this needs to be Hillary's candidacy alone.
As the party here at Amsterdam Atlanta is wrapping up (blame it on the apparent Huckabee victory in Georgia), I'm reminded of a funny little political meme that made the rounds a few months back: T-shirts and bumper stickers with the slogan, "Don't tell mama — I'm for Obama!"
Tonight, I felt a hint of that sentiment coming instead from closet fans of Hillary Clinton, supporters who were quiet at the start of the evening but got more vocal as the night wore on. (Maybe it was the alcohol.)
"I know that most of my gay friends are for Obama," David Prophitt, a nonprofit manager and fan of Hillary, told me. "If you add up the gays and the African American voters in Georgia, it comes out to be a pretty big number."
But as Clinton started racking up wins in states like Massachusetts and Tennessee, the Hill-heads in the room made their presence known — much to the chagrin of some Obama supporters.
Harrison Perry, a self-proclaimed "reformed Republican," says he was wooed into the Obama camp by the candidate's enthusiasm. "I mainly like his freshness — and his sense of competency." And even if Clinton does turn out to be the night's big winner, Perry puts it this way: "It's definitely not over yet for either of them."
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