Photo: Getty Images
Before Super Tuesday, I was in Seattle and crossed paths with Idaho's Democratic Party vice chair, Jeanne Buell, which yielded a number of interesting insights.
Perhaps most poignantly given Obama's growing momentum, our conversation really brought home his strategy of redrawing the political map by paying attention to smaller states and red states while Clinton was focused on the big enchiladas like New York (288 delegates) and California (441 delegates).
Buell was ecstatic because Obama was scheduling 3 hours of time to visit Idaho, a predominately red state with only 23 delegates, on the Saturday before Super Tues (he ended up drawing a crowd of about 14,000). Buell, who is a superdelegate in Idaho, had promised that she would pledge her vote to whichever Democratic candidate would actually visit Idaho before the caucus. "I never dreamed any of them would show up," she told me. When asked why Obama would spend several hours in a state that only offers 23 delegates, she said, "I'd like to believe it's because he cares about the people of Idaho." Pressed further, she added, "I think it's smart. Do you know how much press the man's going to get?"
Few people are questioning how smart it was now. Idaho Democrats chose him over Clinton by a margin of 80% to 17%. Clinton almost didn't make the 15% threshold she needed in order to be eligible for delegates. Obama's efforts in Idaho -- he also opened an HQ there last November, far in advance of any other candidate -- are an example of the type of ground game that has led most recently to his string of eight straight wins in February.
Hillary's campaign has taken note. On a press call today (2/13), Clinton's senior advisors promised that the campaign would have paid staffers in all remaining states that have yet to vote. "We are recommitting and redoubling our efforts to make sure that we have the most effective and largest grass roots operation in these states moving forward," said Guy Cecil, the campaign's political and field director. Whether those efforts are too little, too late remains to be seen.
On a separate note, Buell is part of Idaho's women's caucus and had attended the DNC's diversity summit in Las Vegas last summer, where over 100 LGBT activists also attended to represent the community. In the course of networking, Buell met some LGBT participants and spent time talking to one transgender activist. "I had never met a transgender person before," Buell said. "I had no idea what type of turmoil they go through." Buell came away from the summit with a better understanding of the queer community and now wants to start an LGBT caucus in Idaho.
Among many interesting developments last night, mainstream news organizations acknowledged that gay, lesbian, and bisexual voters exist and asked them to identify as such in the exits polls. A solid majority of those polled in California and New York preferred that Sen. Hillary Clinton be their next president.
NBC exit polling found that among the 4% of California voters who identified as GLB, 63% voted for Clinton, 29% for Obama, and 1% for Edwards. In New York, 7% of voters self-identified as GLB and 59% voted for Clinton, 36% for Obama, and 3% for Edwards.
New York and California were the only states in which this question was asked. The results show that the GLB electorate didn’t move much from where they were last fall in Hunter College’s national polling of the community, when likely GLB voters preferred Clinton by 63%, Obama’s by 22% and Edwards at 7%.
So as Neal told you earlier, the Obama party started off mellow with the slow jams, but once the doors opened. They let supporters in right in time for Obama's speech in Chicago. Somehow, a gaggle of three older ladies got into the press box; they were interesting to listen to. They could barely see the jumbotrons displaying the returns via CNN and MSNBC, but they cheered just as loud as everyone else whenever they projected a winner. When I told them which states he won, including North Dakota, Idaho (where there's a significant amount of KKK members), and a few others, one woman said, "They must really want change."
The scene at the Avalon was as diverse as anything: young, old, black, white, Latino, Asian, male, female... just seriously everything.
According to Mitchell Schwartz, a California director for Obama said that Alameda county had to keep the polls open an extra hour to get the votes in. It's a long voter count here in California -- we use paper ballots for our 22 million are eligible voters.
After that, they got the jams pumping with this cute DJ trio. Playing some good music (Boz Scaggs, Earth Wind & Fire, "Everyday People," "Love Bazaar," "He's the Greatest Dancer.")
The people at this place were dressed like this is a party for like, Skyy Vodka. Despite Clinton's big win in California (53-37), the party goes on...
Ethan Geto, center, with NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer (left) and Lt. Gov. David Paterson
Ethan Geto, a gay NY power broker and LGBT advisor to the Clinton campaign, made an interesting case for why a Hillary presidency would be a bigger step forward for the queer community than an Obama presidency.
"I think that the major reason gay men are looked down upon in American society is because people perceive their gayness to mean they have given up their male privilege — they are now like women. It’s considered a tremendous relinquishing of power, of status," said Geto. "I’ve always felt that the gay movement never would have really gotten off the ground without the feminist movement. The black civil rights movement was a great model and symbol in many ways, but I’ve always felt, the more research I’ve done over the years, that feminism is really the platform for gay liberation, gay rights, and so forth. I think that when and if a woman is elected president, it would be an enormous blow to sexism in general. It would have an enormous ripple effect psychologically and culturally in terms of the status of gay people...
"As far as lesbians go, a butch lesbian is seen like a man. Amongst other things — psychological and cultural factors — men don’t like to see strong women. They’re afraid of strong women. I think if you had a successful, strong woman, it just has to begin to change things. It may be a little more subtle, it may be a little more psychological and not totally a conscious thing. But in terms of cultural symbolism and changing cultural values, electing a woman would not only be a great lift for feminist goals, but very much gay rights and gay liberation."
(Programming Note: That's the last word from the East Coast. Signing off in NY.)
Most Hillary fans have made their way to the exit, but her press machine is still hard at work. They are putting both Missouri and Arizona in the "W" column for her. (Note: I don't think any news outlets have called Missouri for Hillary yet.)
(UPDATE: Obama, in fact, won Missouri. Not Clinton.)
Here's what Team Hillary is saying:
Southwest to Midwest, Clinton Picks Up Two More Toss Up States
MISSOURI
Barack Obama outspent Hillary by $300,000 in TV ads in Missouri. He also benefited from the endorsements of high-profile surrogates across the state such as Representatives Carnahan and Clay, and Senator McCaskill, all of whom actively campaigned for him and appeared in ads on his behalf.
Despite these challenges, Hillary Clinton won this important toss-up state.
ARIZONA
In addition to the endorsement of Governor Janet Napolitano, Barack Obama visited Arizona twice, spent $1.3 million in television advertisements, put an estimated 15 staff on the ground and opened two offices.
I ran into Ann Lewis, a campaign advisor to Hillary and the sister of Rep. Barney Frank. She reminded me that Frank did radio ads for Clinton in the very same state where Kerry and Kennedy were touting Obama. "Barney did well for us in Massachusetts," Lewis told me. "He contributed to what may have been one of the more surprising victories of the night."
Hillary just finished speaking... no doubt feeling pretty good and sounding suspiciously like a victory speech (note: two very big prizes, California and Missouri, are still up in the air.)
Her words were mostly targeted at the Republicans and McCain with some veiled references to Obama. "We know what we need is someone who is ready on day one," said Clinton. Later, she added, "I see an America where we don't just provide health care for some of the people or most of the people, but for every single man, woman, and child in America."
Then Clinton turned to Republicans, underscoring the idea that she was ready to take them on. "I won't let anyone swiftboat this country's future," she said to hollars from the crowd. Clinton referenced Bush and said of the GOP, "They want 8 more years of the same... They see 5 years in Iraq and say, Why not 100 more?" (McCain's '100 years' statement is gonna be tough for him to live down in the general.)
In terms of staging, Hillary thanked both Chelsea and Bill, who were present but notably not even on the stage with her -- looks like the campaign got the message post-South Carolina that this needs to be Hillary's candidacy alone.
As the party here at Amsterdam Atlanta is wrapping up (blame it on the apparent Huckabee victory in Georgia), I'm reminded of a funny little political meme that made the rounds a few months back: T-shirts and bumper stickers with the slogan, "Don't tell mama — I'm for Obama!"
Tonight, I felt a hint of that sentiment coming instead from closet fans of Hillary Clinton, supporters who were quiet at the start of the evening but got more vocal as the night wore on. (Maybe it was the alcohol.)
"I know that most of my gay friends are for Obama," David Prophitt, a nonprofit manager and fan of Hillary, told me. "If you add up the gays and the African American voters in Georgia, it comes out to be a pretty big number."
But as Clinton started racking up wins in states like Massachusetts and Tennessee, the Hill-heads in the room made their presence known — much to the chagrin of some Obama supporters.
Harrison Perry, a self-proclaimed "reformed Republican," says he was wooed into the Obama camp by the candidate's enthusiasm. "I mainly like his freshness — and his sense of competency." And even if Clinton does turn out to be the night's big winner, Perry puts it this way: "It's definitely not over yet for either of them."
Unexpected. But he's still a hell of a long shot.
The Advocate's Girl Friday Michelle Garcia is at The Avalon nightclub in Hollywood with Obama's L.A. camp. (A place that usually hosts party girls and boys of a different stripe.) She said the mood is mellow in a good way; slow jams are being spun.
Oh, and I forgot to say how Obama's peeps told me (and a few thousand other journos) that Barack did really well in the caucus states. The PR guy whose name I missed said, “This puts us in a real strong position.”
Overheard at the bar in Atlanta as Mike Huckabee was announced as winning Georgia: "Well that seals it. He'll be McCain's running mate."
LGBT organizations and activists have focused much of their energy on legalizing gay marriage, but Lucas Shapiro says it's not the only gay issue—or the most important one.
Shapiro, a 28-year-old gay man who works in community organizing and affordable housing, thinks the gay community needs to work on improving itself and building solidarity. "There are all these marginalized groups within the gay community that need solidarity: lower-income people, immigrants, etcetera," he said. "We need to bring all of those groups together."
The gay marriage debate intrigued Shapiro, an Obama supporter, but the candidates' similar stances made it a moot point in the primaries. "I watched the LOGO forum, and it was shameless how [the Democratic candidates] squirmed on the issue of gay marriage," he said.
Others disagreed with Shapiro. David Alexander, a 31-year-old Obama supporter who works for Lambda Legal, said he paid more attention to the tone of the debates on gay marriage. He appreciated Obama's sincerity in talking about gay marriage. "On most LGBT issues, Obama's responses were sincere, open, and passionate," he said. "Clinton's were more strategic."
Added Alexander: "It's not necessarily the most supportive candidate that you have to watch out for—it's the least supportive."
Some more thoughts from a Washingtonian watching the returns elsewhere in the nation's capitol. It's getting late and folks are getting catty.
"We were talking about who we want the Dem to run against (the room is split Obama/Clinton - although maybe slightly leaning Clinton) and some people were saying that Romney is a weaker candidate because of his flip flops, his Mormonism and his general conservative craziness (see: immigration stance). Then someone pointed out McCain's age and how that can be a negative for voters. Those who have met McCain say he loses concentration easily, flies off the handle and has the saggiest face they've ever seen. Point being, he could absolutely implode with a good debate performance from a Dem."
The spin doctors are in full force. Obama's people are on a press conference w/journos and they're saying how well Barack did in the race even in the face of some disappointing defeats like Mass. and Tennessee. But Obama's camp had some really valid points--Obama won by a higher margin in his home state than Clinton and he also won Conn. and Delaware which didn't allow independent voters...
Check out the Clinton Camp spin on Mass. and her red state wins here.
The GLBT party for Hillary Clinton at Duplex Diner
 reports AP...
I walked into the GLBT party organized in support of Sen. Hillary Clinton tonight just as she won New Jersey. As I made my way through the crowd at Duplex Diner and I ran into a real, live Garden State native.
Jim Nastus, now a marketing professional in Washington, tells me why the former First Lady is his girl. "She's been tested, she has proven herself, and she has experience," he says. Sen. Barack Obama is "new to the scene and the media is too in love with him."
The problem with Obama's campaign is that it's "lots of unicorns and rainbows," Nastus laughs. "I've lived in D.C. long enough to know that this whole hope, change thing is about." The country needs a leader "who has the stones to get things done."
Gay rights is the campaign issue that Nastus finds most crucial. Clinton says all the right things while Obama falls short. Someone who comes from a disadvantaged background and who faced institutional racism should be better for the GLBT agenda, he argues.
If Clinton wins the White House, Nastus says her first priority should be fixing healthcare: "It's such a gross injustice that impacts all of our population. To ignore the health of our children is unconscionable."
Nastus's partner, sitting at a table nearby, muses: "This is like the Super Bowl for Washingtonians."
 
It ain't lookin' good for the homophobic ex-gov. Will he be throwing in the towel tonight??
It's been difficult to gauge which candidates the 200-some people in
this bar support. Each new projection announcement, be it for Obama or
Clinton, sets of small, isolated waves of applause and cheers. It's no
surprise, though, that young New York Democrats are split: Clinton has
home advantage in New York, but Obama appeals to younger voters.
"I'm
surprised, it's a pretty good mix," said Brian Switzer, the president
of New York State Young Democrats. "When Edwards was still in it, he
even had a lot of support among the young people."
Not everyone at the viewing party here at Amsterdam Atlanta may agree on the same candidate — at least judging by the pockets of applause that dot the room as winners are announced — by they do agree on one thing: This event is way more packed than anyone expected.
Several folks in the bar are decked out in shiny Mardi Gras beads, and at least one person has asked me, "Why aren't they calling it Super Fat Tuesday?" The party atmosphere here comes as a shock to some policy nerds in the audience.
"I've just been shocked by how many people are here," said Jenna Moore Colvin, who serves on the board of directors for Red Clay Democrats, a PAC that aims to energize the state’s Democratic party. "Usually I feel a little wonkish saying, 'You should go vote today.' I just feel nerdy talking about it. But not today."
Despite her excitement over the crowd, Colvin says she's annoyed with the way results are being reported on television. "I think the media coverage is a horse race and the desire to call states early artificially distorts what’s happening," she said. "I mean, it totally annoys me that I can’t fill in the columns on my score sheet showing the percentage of the votes and the number of delegates each person has won. It treats the viewers as dumb and uninformed and it discourages interest in the process. And — look around us — I think people do want to be interested."
I never understood how True Blue Massachusetts elected Mitt Romney in the first place, but the former Governor has also won its GOP primary, the AP reported based on exit polling.
Percentages: Romney 51, McCain 41, Huckabee 4
On top of his West Virginia caucus state, Huckabee is the projected winner of Arkansas. National Public Radio is also calling a win for him in Alabama.
Another southern state goes to the Illinois Senator....
(Getty images)
If I hear the words "Black vote" one more time, I'm going to strangle someone on the CNN News team.
Hillary's press office is fast and furious, now calling Massachusetts and NJ a win too.
Here's their spin on the wins:
Mass: "UPSET OF THE NIGHT. One of the biggest surprises of the night is Massachusetts" (presumably because both Mass. Senators John Kerry and Ted Kennedy anointed Obama and stumped for him).
Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee: "The Obama campaign has been spinning that they have a monopoly on red states; tonight we showed they don’t. With these important victories, Hillary Clinton has demonstrated that she can compete and win in red states."
Looks like John King of CNN agrees with the analysis. "Well, certainly if Hillary Clinton carries Massachusetts, it is a great psychological and symbolic victory for Senator Clinton," King said on CNN. "Not a lot of delegates in Massachusetts, and again, Democratic rules, so they will be awarded proportionately. But she would love to say that she won Massachusetts and overcame all those endorsements."
UPDATE: Okay, CNN just called Mass. for Clinton too. NY Congressman Anthony Weiner is in the press room and said, "this is the first legitimate story of the evening."
This place is starting to feel electric. At the very least, one could call the Massachusetts win "encouraging."
Primary season can be stressful for political junkies, but few face the challenges of Brian Switzer. the 27-year-old president of New York State Young Democrats. Switzer, the organization's first gay and Latino leader, was appointed to his new job last Monday, a mere eight days before Super Tuesday. "It's been crazy with the press and the events, but it's been fun at the same time," Switzer said at the Manhattan Young Democrats gathering.
Because of his position, Switzer can't endorse one candidate. He said progressive health care ranks among his top priorities and grew visibly frustrated when asked about the Democratic candidates' uniform stance on gay marriage. "I'm not happy about it all," Switzer said, as Obama's win in Delaware sparked a roar. "I want full marriage. I don't want civil unions, I don't want another name for them. They shouldn't take our vote for granted."
Switzer's appointment may be a landmark event in his organization's history, but he said LGBT involvement in New York State's Young Democrats chapters remains low. "It's not as up to par as it should be," he said. "Politics isn't seen as glamorous, and recruiting young people in general is always a problem."
Still, he seems eager to turn that around. After I mentioned that I had interviewed two lesbians, Switzer asked me to point them out in the crowd. "I need to recruit them," he said, smiling.
According to the NY Times, exit polling shows some interesting (and reflective) opinions on the candidates:
A majority of voters thought that Senator Clinton is more qualified to be the president, except for in Georgia and Illinois. However, a majority of voters in all states but Tennessee said that they think Senator Obama would be more likely to unite the country.
Other exit polling shows that Democratic voters are more concerned by the economy than the War in Iraq and health care. It wasn't clear if this exit poll was across all the states or just in Georgia, but interesting nonetheless.
 Any Bill spottings? Maybe's he's lying low (good idea). How about Chelsea?
Connecticut chooses Arizona Sen. John McCain. He's also losing his earlier projected lead in Georgia. Huckabee now leads that state with 35 % against McCain's 32 %. Romney is in 3rd with 29%.
On the Democratic side Obama is leading 51-47 against Clinton with 41 percent of precincts reporting.
 Cars honk and buses idle as Angelenos fight the worst traffic in the nation to get to the polls tonight. Will the new president do anything about getting us off our reliance on foreign oil by offering incentives for natural-gas vehicles or aiding in the building of infrastructure like subways? (photos.com)
Meet Christine Quinn, New York City's first female and gay speaker of the City Council -- a rising star in her own right. Quinn is one of six out LGBT elected officials in New York state -- all of whom support Hillary (surprise!). Was there even a choice?
"For me, doing anything else was never an option. I've been lucky enough to work with her and get a personal sense of what a great person she is and how really effective she is as an advocate for the community," says Quinn. "I didn't even think twice."
Clinton's other LGBT backers in NY state are: Assemblymembers Deborah Glick, Daniel O'Donnell, Matt Titone, Micah Kellner, and Senator Tom Duane.
BTW, they just called NY for Clinton and the place literally erupted.
Though no one is paying attention to him, we figured we should give a shout out to the only candidate who was cool enough to back full gay marriage other than Dennis Kusinich.
(Getty Images)
Just a few weeks after senators Kennedy and Kerry endorsed Obama, the people chose Sen. Clinton for their candidate.
A small state, but a state nonetheless; Barack Obama wins in Deleware, 23 delegates.
 Not really.
Hill will take NY, Obama Illinois... Will Arizona or California shock us?
On the GOP side, the Huckster still has hope thanks to his arch-conservatism. That's just great.
Like his main rival, Sen. Obama took his home state, Illinois. Only a few precincts reporting, so we'll update you if that turns out to be wrong for some reason...
CNN is projecting Clinton has won New York, though none of the precincts are in. Most definitely accurate since she's been ahead in the polls. We'll update you as we learn more!
Here's an e-mail from a friend and fellow Washingtonian who opted not to brave the crowds and hosted a viewing party in his living room:
"First room consensus observation... McCain's age is just as much of a negative as Romney's craziness. Point being -- people think they're both beatable for different reasons. Second anecdote. There are 15 gay men and one straight woman (who doesn't follow politics). They showed John Edwards and she says, 'wait, I thought he dropped out' and everyone starts laughing hysterically. She just looks around confused."
A brisk 15 minute walk from Busboys & Poets, I encounter yet another viewing party for Sen. Barack Obama. This event, at Nellie's Sports Bar, has attracted a diverse, boisterous beer-drinking crowd. CNN blares on most of the big screen TVs. For tonight, sports programming is shoved aside.
I catch up with Amanda Landsbaum, who is here with her fiancée and a group of friends, several of whom are sporting Obama pins. The hotel employee and Maryland resident says she "has never been so excited and never cared so much" about politics.
"There has never been more at stake," says Landsbuam, who "loved Bill Clinton" but is not so sweet on Hillary. "Now is our chance for actual change. He's a candidate for change."
Her friend Jerome Brown, who works in the legal profession, agrees. The Washingtonian, who is sporting a rainbow Obama pin, says he has always been politically active. "But [Obama] is the first candidate that has truly inspired me."
In the corner of The Irish Rogue's lounge sit Rebecca Symes and Aurore Decarlo, two New York lesbians, conversing with straight female friends. Together, they laugh, share drinks, and comment on the return results—until I ask them which candidate they support. Symes cast a vote for Clinton; Decarlo picked Obama.
Clinton's health care plan was the major draw for 27-year-old Symes. Decarlo, 31, supported Hillary "up until the end" but voted for Obama today because of his potential to change Washington politics. They speak loudly over one another and jokingly roll their eyes when I ask which candidate would better support the LGBT community. Symes points out that Clinton handled herself well in the recent HRC debate, but Decarlo isn't so convinced: "Hillary disassociates from Bill Clinton's policies [such as "don't ask, don't tell"] when it's convenient for her."
Both women, though, said they were initially excited by the prospect of having our first female president. "It was a huge draw for me," Decarlo said of Clinton's gender. "I'd love to see a woman candidate running for president. But it was a tortured decision, and I voted for Obama. Ultimately, I voted with my heart, not my head."
Symes agreed. "It was a big reason, but it's definitely not the only reason," said Symes. "She's a strong role model for young women, and I really appreciate that."
(Getty Images)
Sen. Clinton picked up her first states of the day in Oklahoma and Tennessee, Al Gore's home state (which he didn't take in 2000). And of course, Sen. Clinton lived in Arkansas for years as an attorney and as first lady
When hundreds flocked to Washington's Busboys & Poets, a bustling
café, bar and bookshop, to cheer on Sen. Barack Obama tonight, Ian Martinez was floored
-- absolutely floored. The frazzled chair of "DC For Obama" nimbly
weaves between campaign signs and floating red, white and blue balloons as we speak.
Martinez,
whose Obama backing has no affiliation with his day job at a technology trade
group, started volunteering last May "and D.C. didn’t matter much
then." Now, with the anticipated close delegate count, his work has
suddenly skyrocketed. "We have 4,000 members -- and 2,000 of them are
active volunteers," he says.
It feels like most of them showed up tonight
-- and brought friends. As I ducked out, I heard the host at the front door tell an anxious, growing line outside that the wait to get in was already 2 hours.
Here's a shot of Hillary's HQ before the onslaught... in a few hours, a bunch of fresh, young, change-oriented faces will fill those stands, serving as a backdrop to her speech. But for now, all we've got is a bunch of journos jockeying for position.
The announcement that Barack Obama had won Georgia came earlier than some might have expected — but didn't elicit much of a gasp here at Amsterdam Atlanta. Almost a dozen local groups, including Georgia Equality, the Stonewall Democrats and Young Democrats of Georgia, have gathered at the popular gay watering hole in Midtown to watch primary results roll in.
With 0% of polls reporting, CNN handed the state to Obama shortly after polls closed at 7 p.m. Oddly enough, among the 200 or so people in the bar here, most people clapped when Hillary Clinton was announced as winning Oklahoma — but not for Obama winning Illinois.
Kyle Bailey, political director of Georgia Equality and a former board member of the National Stonewall Democrats, says he wasn’t surprised by Obama's Georgia win, not only due to the huge number of African American voters, but also by the possible shift of former John Edwards supporters into the Obama camp.
"I think Edwards had a significant following in Georgia," Bailey told me, "and those people see Barack Obama as a candidate more aligned with their values." (Bailey points out that his views are his own and don't necessarily reflect those of Georgia Equality.) He was also one of almost 30 former members of John Edwards’ LBGT steering committee who came out in support of Obama last week.
"As a young person, and I'm 24 years old, I'm personally really inspired by Obama's candidacy," Bailey told me. "I'm just really excited by his vision of America."
While we wait for polls to close, enjoy this lovely photo of potential first lady Michelle Obama. If hubby wins, do you think she'll be a Hillary F.L. or a Jackie F.L.?? (gettyimages)
On the upper level of The Irish Rogue, a crowded pub near Manhattan's
Times Square, dozens of Democrats in their twenties and thirties have
congregated for drinks and debate, their eyes glued to six flat-screen TVs tuned to CNN. At this returns party, thrown
jointly by the Manhattan Young Democrats and ACT NOW, two local organizations
that aim to increase youth participation in American politics, members
and non-members have found a lively outlet for expression and empathy.
"I just wanted a group to celebrate with," said Biana Fay, 26, who came to the event alone.
The party also gives young voters a way to take the edge off after what
some described as a difficult voting decision. "This was the first
election where I've had a really difficult decision," Fay said. "I voted for Obama in the primary today, after a lot of back and
forth."
Many attendees' ages, though, fall well outside the party's planned
18-to-36 range. "I came here in part to learn the opinions of younger
Democrats," said Samuel Underwood, a 50-year-old business development
manager who supports Obama but still likes Clinton. "Maybe if I learn
something new here, it could change my mind."
The LATimes has a story about Los Angeles County inmates rocking the vote in record numbers. How well do you think the candidates would fare in the clink?
 (photos.com)
NYTimes.com is reporting John is besting Mike by nine percentage points and Mitt by 10... Mitt's chances aren't looking too great today, are they? (gettyimages)
What's fantastic about having two fantastic Democratic candidates is that they know how to party!
Clinton Campaign's victory party:
IATSE Local 80
2520 W. Olive Avenue
Burbank, CA 91505 (Sorry cool kids, that means you have to go to the valley).
RSVP here
Obama Campaign's victory party:
Avalon
1735 Vine Street
Hollywood, CA 90028 (Sorry cool kids, that means you have to go to Hollywood).
I didn't see a Romney- or McCain-sanctioned event in the immediate area... if you know of the McCain or Romney Victory Parties in the LA area, let us know.
And of course, if you're having an LA-based watch party (or going to a public watch party), leave a comment and we'll list it here!
Barack wins with a 2-1 advantage over Hillary. Republican race too close to call.
Photo: Getty Images
I've been interviewing people about delegate counts, which I must admit, is extremely complicated stuff.
Here are some basics from Bob Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University:
--Delegates at stake today, about 1585 for Dems, 1191 for the GOP
--In most Republicans primaries, the winner gets all the delegates; Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally based on Congressional districts. "So it’s not a question of winning states," Shapiro said of the Democrats, "in order to clean up, you’ve got to win big.”
Shapiro said that if one candidate wins more than about 60% of today's delegates (or 960), that will figure very positively for them. But if they both get 800-some delegates, the race could go on until maybe even April 22, when Pennsylvania, the last large, delegate-rich state (188 delegates) votes.
States to watch for the Democrats:
--California, the biggest prize with 441 delegates -- Obama has recently gained a lot of momentum and polling shows him almost even with Clinton now; but nearly 50% of Cali's ballots were cast in advance and pundits say that favors Clinton.
--New York, Hillary's home base with 281 delegates -- if Obama has a strong showing there and stays even with Clinton or comes anywhere close, that's not good for Clinton.
--Illinois, Obama's home base with 185 delegates -- Obama needs a decisive victory there
--Missouri is a bellwether state and doing well there in the general election is a must for both parties. Recent polling shows Clinton with a slight edge, but if Obama ties or takes Missouri, that bodes well for him.
I pressed Shapiro for the magic number -- the one where either Clinton or Obama could definitively claim victory. He stuttered for a bit then said, "It's just not that simple. That’s the whole point."
You can say that again.
Voting deadlines are fast approaching:
Georgia polls close at 7 pm ET
Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Tennessee close at 8 pm ET
Arkansas polls close at 8:30 pm ET (just to make it that more confusing)
Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New York polls close at 9 pm ET
Idaho, North Dakota, Utah polls close at 10 pm ET
California polls close at 11 pm ET
Alaska polls close at 12:30 am ET
Without really meaning to, I ran across a small whiff of some pronounced anti-Obama rhetoric today.
I caught up with Jamie Ensley, president of Georgia Log Cabin Republicans, to get his take on how local gay elephants might be facing the choice between candidates John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — none of whom can be exactly dubbed champions of LGBT issues.
"I believe that the majority of gay Republicans will be voting for McCain," Ensley said. "Gov. Romney and Gov. Huckabee are unacceptable choices."
He added that endorsements from Sen. Johnny Isakson and Sen. Saxby Chambliss might help McCain win Georgia by a slim margin.
Fair enough. But Ensley went on to say that he expected "Barack Hussein Obama" to walk away with a big win here, and made a point of adding Obama's unfortunate middle name into the next few references as well. [To be fair, he also consistently included the "Rodham" with "Hillary Clinton," but it just doesn't have the same sizzle, somehow.]
"I would expect the majority of America's youth are voting for idealistic candidates who talk big dreams, but have little practical experience," Ensley said. "Barack Hussein Obama and Ron Paul will receive a majority of the impact of the youth vote."
Should Obama emerge as the Democratic nominee, I'm wondering if such nomenclature will become an old saw among the Republican punditry.
Super Tuesday is upon us but campaign watchers in the
District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia are eagerly awaiting Feb. 12, also
known as the "Potomac Primary." While more delegates can be won today
than on any other day of the primary calendar, up to 2 million voters could
turn out to award 358 delegates (239 Democratic and 119 Republican) to
candidates in this region, according to this story in the Washington Post.
On the Democratic side, the split decision likely to result
from tonight's 24-state blitz means that next Tuesday could play an influential role in the next
phase of the nomination battle, says Rick Rosendall of the Gay and Lesbian
Activists Alliance of Washington. Due to its small size, D.C. has "pretty
well been ignored in the past" so joining up with its neighboring will raise the city's profile, he says.
Rosendall, whose group has a local focus and is non-partisan, points out that
there are "no perfect candidates" on GLBT issues in this race, which
means that a strict litmus-test approach would lead gays and lesbians "to
sit out the election." However, given Democrats' general superiority on gay
issues "an incrementalist approach is more a useful measure."
This presidential campaign also appears to be the first election year in some
time "where gay people have not been the chief scapegoats in Republican
wedge politics," Rosendall says. He attributes that partly to "voter
fatigue" plus "immigrants have replaced gays this year as
the favored scapegoats."
Sometimes living in LA, you forget that there are even Republicans running for office. I guess that's most apparent looking at campaign contributions by area. A lot of the red you're seeing are Ron Paul donations and a few Mitt Romney.
Take a look at all the blue in the general 90028, which is the real Hollywood (awful tourist attractions, ridiculous traffic, junkies, and rejected drag queens, not the Hollywood that most people think of)
Check out West Hollywood, Los Angeles' gay ghetto -- lots of Clinton love here
Here's Beverly Hills, where you live when you want to give the appearance that you're rich. Here, though, you'll see a few more McCain supporters.
There's a lot of blue going on in the Crenshaw / View Park / Windsor Heights area, an area with a large middle class black population. Among the red supporters are Sam Brownback and Rudy Giuliani.
And here's North North Hollywood,as I call it, not to be confused with NoHo -- this area has a large Hispanic population. Sadly, there haven't been too many donations in heavily Latino neighborhoods here to give a good representation of donor trends. If anyone knows of a better zipcode to go off, let me know...
{info & maps via Huffington Post}
Photo: Getty Images
Since the LGBT community has as much as, if not more than, most Americans at stake in the question of universal health care, I thought I would point out this column by Paul Krugman of The New York Times. Krugman essentially argues that Clinton's plan would cover almost twice the number of people that Obama's plan would while costing only a fraction more.
"... a plan without mandates, broadly resembling the Obama plan, would cover 23 million of those currently uninsured, at a taxpayer cost of $102 billion per year. An otherwise identical plan with mandates would cover 45 million of the uninsured — essentially everyone — at a taxpayer cost of $124 billion. Over all, the Obama-type plan would cost $4,400 per newly insured person, the Clinton-type plan only $2,700."
Obama has made an issue of the "mandates" in Clinton's plan, and reporters have been slightly obsessed with asking how Clinton would guarantee that people purchase health insurance, a requirement of her plan. Krugman takes a step back and adds a bit more context.
If you happen to be in Washington, D.C. for Super Tuesday and want to spend your evening with friends and strangers, I've been told there are a couple of venues hosting gay and lesbian-focused viewing parties.
GLBT supporters of Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton will assemble at Duplex Diner (2004 18th Street, NW), a cozy watering hole in Adams Morgan, according to an event listing on Clinton 's campaign site. "Festivities will begin at 7 p.m. and will end when California is called for Hillary," organizers wrote.
Just down the street, fans of Democratic Sen. Barack Obama will gather at Nellie's Sports Bar (900 U St., NW). A listing on Obama's campaign site tries to lure potential attendees with food and drink specials. Buckets of beer are $11.95 and quesadillas are $5.
Downtown, posh new club The Park @ 14th (920 14th St., NW) is hosting its own (non-GLBT) Clinton crowd. Organizers include Young Lawyers for Hillary, HillBlazers and Hillary Speaks for Me.
For a more laidback atmosphere, progressive coffee shop/bookstore/restaurant Busboys & Poets (1390 V St., NW) is also celebrating Super Tuesday. No word on whether organizers there are rooting for Clinton or Obama.
My apologies to GOP GLBTs -- I haven’t heard about any watch parties in Washington for Mike Huckabee, John McCain or Mitt Romney, but feel free to send us the logistics.
It's a hazy and unseasonably warm Super Tuesday here, which may well spell record turnout among Georgia presidential primary voters. Heavy turnout, though, can also mean long lines to vote.
My own polling place in the heart of Midtown, Atlanta's traditional gayborhood, was oddly sleepy today around 1:30 p.m., but local news outlets are reporting complaints of long wait times at nearby metro locations.
Meanwhile, and in line with the spirit of the springlike weather, some of Georgia's gay politicos are waiting to see what happens with one suddenly key segment of the voting population: young people. Tim Cairl, a board member of the Georgia Stonewall Democrats, told me yesterday that he expects the number of overall votes to be inflated by young people, as well as folks who aren't used to participating in primaries.
"We're mainly looking to see if the youth turnout continues to be insanely highly, as it has been in other states," Cairl said. "If so, that's really good news for [LGBT] issues. I would also expect that'll bode really well for us come November."
A high turnout among young voters will likely mean good news for Barack Obama, who led Georgia by 47% to Hillary Clinton’s 41% in the most recently released McClatchy/MSNBC poll.
You can't deny the voting power that LGBT Americans have. Maybe some political parties are in denial about it, but let's take a look at some of the states with delegates up for grabs today...
California
Total: 36,457,000
LGB pop.: 1,138,164
New York
Total: 19,306,183
LGB pop: 592,337
Illinois
Total: 12,831,970
LGB pop.: 345,395
New Jersey
Total: 8,724,560
LGB pop.: 245,628
Georgia
Total: 9,363,941
LGB pop: 278,943
For more estimates, check out The Advocate's interactive map.
{Source: U.S. Census Bureau; GLB estimates provided by The Williams Institute, based on figures from the 2005 American Community Survey}
It's Super Tuesday in Washington, D.C. and you can feel the
excitement in the air. The energy in the nation's capital is practically palpable as
politicos finish out their afternoons with grand plans of plopping themselves in front
of the television tonight to watch the results trickle in.
Staffers at the Human Rights Campaign, who spend their days lobbying federal and state lawmakers on behalf of gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender
equality, are no exception. Several are planning home viewing parties while others
prefer to watch the drama unfold at more public venues (like pubs with big
screen TVs), I'm told.
"The GLBT community has been as active in this year's
presidential election as in any election in history," HRC Communications
Director Brad Luna tells me. "Throughout this process our issues and our
community have been at the forefront of the presidential dialogue -- thankfully
in a mostly positive way."
He says there is still a "small, anti-gay base in the Republican Party
that some Republican candidates have tried to appeal to by using anti-gay
politics of fear but that is becoming increasingly ineffective." In 2008, the
GLBT community is enthusiastic about their options, he says, "and that
enthusiasm and motivation to organize and vote will only increase as we head to
November."
(getty images)
The results are in from the West Virginia Republican Caucus (Democrats caucus in May). Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee has taken the state, capturing 18 delegates in this winner-take-all contest. In the initial count, there weren't enough McCain supporters for him to be viable in the state, so they switched over to Huckabee (apparently they would rather give the delegates to Huckabee -- whose chances of winning the nomination are extremely slim -- rather than create any momentum for Mitt). Before the second count, Romney was ahead, but the switch of McCain voters put him under by just 47 attendees, as you can see. Ron Paul only had 10.4 % in the first count, which also kept him from being counted as a viable candidate.
The delegate switch didn't sit well with Romney supporters, according to the Charleston Gazette. "These are
the juvenile actions of a morally bankrupt campaign," said John
McCutcheon of the Phillips Group, which supported Romney's campaign in
the state.
Here's the breakdown for the caucus:
Huckabee: 567 caucus goers, 52%
Romney: 521, 47%
McCain: 12, 1%
Giuliani: 0. 0%
Paul: 0, 0%
{info from CNN, Charleston Gazette}
After a year of stump speeches, town halls, and debating, Tsunami Tuesday has finally arrived. Twenty four states, about 1600 delegates for Democrats, 1200 for Republicans.
The team here at The Advocate will be checking in here all day from New York, Los Angeles, Washington D.C., and Atlanta to give you the scoop on returns and other news as we go on.
Firstly, If you haven't voted yet today, as of right now (noon PST), you have plenty of time (unless it's the West Virginia Republican Caucus). Check out your state's (or American Samoa's) election board to find out information about your polling place, referendums, etc.:
Alabama | Alaska | Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Delaware | Georgia | Idaho | Illinois | Kansas | Massachusetts | Minnesota | Missouri | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Dakota | Oklahoma | Tennessee | Utah | West Virginia
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